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Download Free PDF. The Microstructure of the “Flash Crash”: Flow Toxicity, Liquidity Crashes, and the Probability of Informed Trading. The Journal of Portfolio Management, 2011. Download Full PDF Package. Explains the natural phenomena of lightning and thunder. An icon used to represent a menu that can be toggled by interacting with this icon.

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The Kennedy Slide of 1962, also known as the Flash Crash of 1962, is the term given to the stock market decline from December 1961 to June 1962 during the Presidential term of John F. Kennedy. After the market experienced decades of growth since the Wall Street Crash of 1929, the stock market peaked during the end of 1961 and plummeted during the first half of 1962. During this period, the S&P 500 declined 22.5%, and the stock market did not experience a stable recovery until after the end of the Cuban Missile Crisis. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 5.7%, down 34.95, the second-largest point decline then on record.[1]

Background[edit]

Following the Wall Street Crash of 1929, speculators became more cautious and reluctant about holding on to stocks for extended periods of time. As a result, there was an increased trend of pooling on the bear side of the market—betting on stock prices to lower—and pushing stock prices down further. These bear raids allowed many Wall Street investors to make fortunes, for adequate regulation of inside information had not yet become established. Joseph P. Kennedy, a famous and prominent bear raider, had gained much of his fortune through trading in stock pools. As his wealth continued to grow, he later entered the political sphere as a strong supporter of Franklin D. Roosevelt. Kennedy eventually became appointed as the chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, a federal agency established by Franklin D. Roosevelt in order to investigate current speculative operations and prevent a downturn like the 1929 crash. During his term as the head of the commission, Kennedy did a thorough job and made a name for both himself and his family. His success and reputation may have eventually helped place his son in the Presidency during the election of 1960.[2]

During the time period leading up to the Kennedy Slide of 1962, the economy was experiencing a rapid expansion. From February 1951 to December 1959, the real GDP of the United States had risen significantly. Stock prices had been on a steady rise since the late 1940s, and when John F. Kennedy took office in 1961, he promised that the recovery would continue. After continuing to rise through December 1961, however, the stock market experienced a massive decline. Through June 1962, the S&P 500 experienced a 22.5% decline. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 5.7% on May 28, 1962 alone, in what was termed the 'Flash Crash of 1962'.[3]

Explanations[edit]

During the time of the Kennedy Slide, the head of the American Stock Exchange, Edwin Posner, explained to reporters that 'this definitely is not panic selling'. Instead, he attributed the drop in stock prices as an adjustment from the previous 10 years of growth that the economy had been experiencing. With this drop, Posner believed that stocks were reaching their realistic levels.[2]

After a thorough investigation led by a special committee of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, the committee concluded that there were clear signs of incompetence, but none of malfeasance that would have warranted further investigation. The SEC had hoped to figure out the causes of wrongdoing in order to pass legislation that would prevent further mishaps, but it did not find any evidence of such behavior. In its report, the SEC concluded that the downturn in the market was due to 'a complex interaction of causes and effects—including rational and emotional motivations as well as a variety of mechanisms and pressures', which led to a 'downward spiral of great velocity and force'. The end of the report labeled the market slide as an isolated, nonrecurring incident with precipitating causes that were unable to be confidently ascertained.[2]

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Recovery[edit]

President John F. Kennedy was asked by many to address the public about the state of the economy, but he ultimately decided not to do so. Kennedy's advisors pushed for all sorts of remedies, from reducing the margin requirement to announcing a tax cut of $5–10 billion to holding a 'fireside chat' and discussing the health of the economy. Six weeks after deciding on not taking an action, however, Kennedy reduced the margin requirement and decided on a tax cut, hoping to incentivize large, self-financing companies.[2]

The public began gaining confidence after important businessmen and fund managers addressed press about the concerns of the market. J. Paul Getty, an oil tycoon with large investments in Wall Street, addressed the press and explained, 'When some folks see others selling, they automatically follow suit. I do the reverse—and buy. I don't think the slide will go on. In fact, I think there will be a rather substantial rise shortly.' Walter Benedict, fund manager of the billion dollar mutual fund Investors Planning Corporation, also announced that the market was bullish, stating that his funds had recently purchased $20 million worth of stock. With the backing of successful investors, the public's fears had temporarily subsided, and the stock markets rallied heavily in what became the greatest single day rally since the end of World War II.[2]

Although it seemed like recovery was imminent, the stock market continued to be volatile throughout the month of June. A stable rise did not occur until the end of the Cuban Missile Crisis in October.

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Aftermath[edit]

This stock market shock was significant, but it had little immediate effects on interest rate premiums in the credit market. During the entire period, the interest rates remained relatively steady. Because there had not been substantial loan losses or bank failures in decades, the bank system remained remarkably stable, preventing the interest rates from spreading upward. The Federal Reserve made only minor interest rate movements, which helped ease panic in the treasury markets.[4]

When comparing the highest and lowest points of the stock market during the Kennedy Slide, the paper values of stocks declined 27% during the period of December 1961 and June 1962. The 1929–1932 bear market, which was a substantial cause of the Great Depression, saw a sharp drop of 89%. Many aspects of the Kennedy Slide of 1962 mirrored those of the Wall Street Crash of 1929, such as the detrimental mix of an extremely volatile stock market, fearful investors, and weak leadership.[2]

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See also[edit]

References[edit]

  1. ^Zweig, Jason (29 May 2010). 'Back to the Future: Lessons From the Forgotten 'Flash Crash' of 1962'. Wall Street Journal.
  2. ^ abcdefSobel, Robert (1999). Panic on Wall Street: A History of America's Financial Disasters. Beard Books. ISBN1-893122-46-8.
  3. ^Zweig, Jason (2010-05-29). 'Back to the Future: Lessons From the Forgotten 'Flash Crash' of 1962'. Wall Street Journal. ISSN0099-9660. Retrieved 2018-05-23.
  4. ^Mishkin, Frederic. 'U.S. STOCK MARKET CRASHES AND THEIR AFTERMATH: IMPLICATIONS FOR MONETARY POLICY.' NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH (2002). Web. 24 Mar. 2013. <http://www0.gsb.columbia.edu/faculty/fmishkin/PDFpapers/W8992.pdf>.
  • Meltzer, Allan H. (2009). A History of the Federal Reserve – Volume 2, Book 1: 1951–1969. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. p. 375. ISBN978-0226520025.
Retrieved from 'https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Kennedy_Slide_of_1962&oldid=991307383'

A flash crash is a very rapid, deep, and volatile fall in security prices occurring within a very short time period. A flash crash frequently stems from trades executed by black-box trading, combined with high-frequency trading, whose speed and interconnectedness can result in the loss and recovery of billions of dollars in a matter of minutes and seconds.[1]

Occurrences[edit]

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Notable[according to whom?] flash crashes have occurred as of January 2019:[citation needed]

  • Frankenshock,[2] or Flash Crash Swiss Franc on January 15, 2015[3]
  • Flash Crash of the British Pound on October 6, 2016[4]
  • Flash Crash of Japanese Yen on January 2, 2019[5][6]

2010 flash crash[edit]

This type of event occurred on May 6, 2010. A $4.1 billion trade on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) resulted in a loss to the Dow Jones Industrial Average of over 1,000 points and then a rise to approximately previous value, all over about fifteen minutes. The mechanism causing the event has been heavily researched and is in dispute. On April 21, 2015, the U.S. Department of Justice laid '22 criminal counts, including fraud and market manipulation' against Navinder Singh Sarao, a trader. Among the charges included was the use of spoofing algorithms.[7]

Flash

2017 Ethereum Flash Crash[edit]

On June 22, 2017, the price of Ethereum, the second-largest digital cryptocurrency, dropped from more than $300 to as low as $0.10 in minutes at GDAX exchange. Suspected for market manipulation or an account takeover at first, later investigation by GDAX claimed no indication of wrongdoing. The crash was triggered by a multimillion-dollar selling order which brought the price down, from $317.81 to $224.48, and caused the following flood of 800 stop-loss and margin funding liquidation orders, crashing the market.[8]

British pound flash crash[edit]

On October 7, 2016, there was a flash crash in the value of sterling, which dropped more than 6% in two minutes against the US dollar. It was the pound's lowest level against the dollar since May 1985. The pound recovered much of its value in the next few minutes, but ended down on the day's trading, most likely due to market concerns about the impact of a 'hard Brexit'—a more complete break with the European Union following Britain's 'Leave' referendum vote in June. It was initially speculated that the flash crash may have been due to a fat-finger trader error or an algorithm reacting to negative news articles about the British Government's European policy.[9]

USDJPY and AUDUSD flash crash[edit]

On January 2, 2019, a flash crash was seen in the value USDJPY and AUDUSD, which dropped more than 4% in a few minutes. It was the USD lowest level against the Yen and AUD against USD since March 2009. The USDJPY and AUDUSD recovered much of its value in the next few minutes. It was speculated that the flash crash may have been due to Apple reporting reduced sales forecast in China but this seems unlikely as the report came out an hour before the actual crash.[10] The lows reported on USDJPY also varied with Reuters reporting a low of 104.90 on USDJPY while FXMarketAPI reported a low of 104.45.[11]

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Other crashes[edit]

Flash Crash PDF Free Download

Flash Crash Pdf Free Download Free

In October 2013, a flash crash occurred on the Singapore Exchange which wiped out $6.9 billion in capitalization and saw some stocks lose up to 87 percent of their value. The crash resulted in new regulations being announced in August 2014. Minimum trading prices of 0.20 cents per share would be introduced, short positions would be required to be reported, and a 5 percent collaterallevy implemented. The exchange said the measures were to curb excessive speculation and potential shareprice manipulation.[12]

Two short-lived (less than a second) movements (more than 1%) in several (40 and 88) stock prices followed by recovery were reported for November 25, 2014.[13]

Significance of recovery[edit]

Events described as flash crashes typically exhibit a rapid partial or total price recovery.[citation needed] Conversely, rapid price falls in response to adverse news (e.g. disappointing earnings announcements) which do not rapidly revert are not generally characterized as flash crashes.

See also[edit]

References[edit]

  1. ^Bozdog, Dragos (July 2011). 'Rare Events Analysis of High-Frequency Equity Data'. Wilmott Journal: 74–81. SSRN2013355.Cite journal requires journal= (help)
  2. ^'Pound's plunge joins growing list of 'flash crashes''. Financial Times. 7 October 2016. Retrieved 27 October 2017.
  3. ^'Switzerland's central bank lost $51 billion and the franc is getting hammered'. Business Insider. Retrieved 2017-10-30.
  4. ^Davies, Rob (2016-10-07). 'What caused the pound's flash crash?'. The Guardian. ISSN0261-3077. Retrieved 2017-10-30.
  5. ^'Three things caused the flash crash in forex market'. ForexLive. Retrieved 2019-01-03.
  6. ^'Currencies flash crash recap: Where are we now?'. ForexLive. Retrieved 2019-01-03.
  7. ^'How a Mystery Trader With an Algorithm May Have Caused the Flash Crash'. Bloomberg.com. 2015-04-22. Retrieved 2017-02-08.
  8. ^Kharpal, Arjun (22 June 2017). 'Ethereum briefly crashed from $319 to 10 cents in seconds on one exchange after 'multimillion dollar' trade'. CNBC. Retrieved 24 June 2017.
  9. ^'Pound struggles to recover after plunging 6% in 2 minutes'. Financial Times. 7 October 2016.
  10. ^'Yen flash crash: what happened and why'. Financial Times. 3 January 2018.
  11. ^. FXMarketAPI https://fxmarketapi.com.Missing or empty title= (help)
  12. ^'Singapore Exchange regulators change rules following crash'. Singapore News.Net. Archived from the original on 8 August 2014. Retrieved 2 August 2014.
  13. ^'Two mini-flash crashes rock stock market Tuesday'. MarketWatch. Retrieved 25 November 2014.

External links[edit]

  • FLASH CRASH! Dow Jones drops 560 points in 4 Minutes! May 6th 2010 on YouTube
  • Flash Crash: Can Only One Trader Be Responsible? on YouTube
  • Alleged Flash Crash Trader’s Former Employer Speaks Out on YouTube
  • Aftershocks and Fragility: Ten Years in Financial Markets - Financial Times
  • The Stock Market Was Rocked by a Mysterious ‘Flash Crash’ Five Years Ago. What You Need to Know - Barron's
Retrieved from 'https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Flash_crash&oldid=1015438418'